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Vol. 24, No. 3  |  September 16, 2011
Disparate Pre-Owned Aircraft Markets Emerge

What Goes Around Comes Around During Economic Recoveries

Carl Janssens, ASA | Aircraft Bluebook–Price Digest
[View the charts.]

Pick your adjective.

A wide disparity exists in today’s pre-owned business aircraft market, and just about any adjective will accurately describe some part of the market.

Great can be used to describe late-model large-cabin global business jets, which include models such as the Global XRS, Dassault Falcon 7X and Gulfstream G550.

Then there is the awful when dealing with a legacy business jet punching through its 30th anniversary of service.

For a while now, there have been at least two distinct and markets. This scenario is not news, yet many in this industry seem puzzled about market dynamics.

Why does the pre-owned market appear to be good, bad and confused? The answer is the closed traffic pattern around the economy. As the recovery stumbles along, confidence remains shaky. We can’t break out of the pattern. To make matters murkier, the preseason presidential election rallies are in full swing with the all-out campaigns next. Oh joy.

For this edition of Marketline, I could not find an angle that hasn’t already been explored by someone else. I went to the Bluebook archives and pulled out an Aircraft Bluebook Marketline from 1992 for inspiration, and I think I have found a good way to predict what’s next in the economy. Even in this lethargic economic recovery, what goes around comes around. Historically, there has always been an economic recovery followed by a peak and then another slow down.

Marketline has done a pretty good job at reporting trends. The pre-owned market knows its position in this cycle. Someone out there is bound to make the calculated decision to buy now rather than later realizing the upswing is on the way.
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