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Hogs &
Pigs Report Cautiously Encouraging
Friday’s USDA Hogs and Pigs report indicates the pace of
breeding herd liquidation may be quickening, generally agreeing with
pre-report estimates. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group Lean Hogs
futures responded by moving $0.50 to $1.05 higher in early trading on
Monday, with the largest gain being in the April contract.
Figure 1 shows the key numbers from the report as well as the averages
of analysts’ pre-report estimates and the differences between actual
and estimated year-on-year percentages. Some key numbers and
implications include:
• The breeding herd of 5.874 million head is 3.1% smaller than
last year, marking an increase in the rate of reduction from 2.7% in
June. That’s good news – especially since this survey captured
Sept.1 inventories, only three weeks into this period of higher sow
slaughter. The bad news is the June-September reduction is much
smaller than in past liquidations. I believe that reflects the fact that
clear liquidation signals did not come until the late-July break in CME
Lean Hogs futures. I expect to see a larger year-on-year breeding herd
reduction in the December report – even if profit prospects improve
some. The cold, hard truth is that many producers are out of cash with
no source of funds to support their operations.
• The market herd was 0.5% smaller than expected. That should be
mildly supportive to prices over the next few months, but note that the
largest share of this shortfall is in the under-60 lb. category. Q4
slaughter is going to be very near the levels projected by the June
report. As Figure 2 shows, I still have eight weeks with the federally
inspected (FI) slaughter above 2.3 million head. That includes the past
two weeks when actual FI slaughter has exceeded the forecast level by
0.3% and 1%, respectively. Readers should note that Figure 2 assumes
that imports of Canadian market hogs will continue to be in the
10,000/week range, but imports of Canadian feeder pigs will continue to
trend downward at about 30,000 head fewer than year-ago
levels.
FULL ARTICLE
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Productivity by Farm Size Deserves Another Look
We divided the Swine Management Services, LLC database
into four groups:
• Under 1,000 mated females (141 farms); average size is 650
females;
• 1,000-1,999 mated females (130 farms); average size is 1,393
females;
• 2,000- 2,999 mated females (94 farms); average size is 2579
females, and
• Over 3,000 mated females (32); average size is 4,596
females.
Criteria also required that farms had to be in production for over three
years and weaning average had to be 22 pigs/mated female during the time
period. From the 397 farms in the four groups, 619 farms (64%)
qualified.
Table 1 (52-week averages) provides a breakdown of production numbers
for the four group sizes and Table 2 is a breakdown of the Top 10% farms
for the four group sizes. Pigs weaned/mated female/year (PW/MF/Y) has a
narrow range, between farms sizes – just 24.45 to 24.67. However, if
we focus on the Top 10% farms, the range between farm sizes widens –
26.84 to 29.02 pigs – with the farms under 1,000 mated females
reporting the highest PW/MF/Y at 29.02.
FULL ARTICLE
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A Call
for H1N1 Outreach
A number of agricultural organizations thanked the Food
and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations for its efforts
to “clear up” public misinformation about the nature of the novel
H1N1 influenza virus. In a letter to the FAO, the agricultural groups
said, “The initial misnaming of the H1N1 virus as swine flu caused the
North American pork industry to suffer significant losses. U.S. pork
producers were losing just under $10 per head on April 24, the first day
the H1N1 flu received wide media attention. That number soared to over
$30 per head as consumer demand for pork fell and some U.S. trading
partners closed their markets to U.S. pork despite the large body of
evidence demonstrating that the virus is not transmitted through food.
Even the U.S. beef and poultry industries, which weren't directly tied
to H1N1, have suffered losses because export markets were closed in
reaction to H1N1 in the United States.” Those signing the letter were
the American Farm Bureau Federation, American Meat Institute, National
Cattlemen’s Beef Association, National Chicken Council, National Meat
Association, National Pork Board, National Pork Producers Council,
National Turkey Federation, U.S. Meat Export Federation and the U.S.A.
Poultry and Egg Export Council.
FULL ARTICLE
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Veterinary Clinic Challenge: Eat Pork Each Night for a
Week
To show support for a struggling U.S. pork industry,
which has weathered two years of economic hardship and put some
producers out of business, a northern Iowa swine veterinary consulting
clinic has kicked off “Pork Week.”
Suidae Health & Production reminds that the recent misnaming of the
novel H1N1 flu as “swine
flu” has compounded the situation – making U.S. and foreign
countries that import pork “fearful of eating this safe and healthy
meat.”
The Algona, IA, clinic points out that the novel H1N1 flu virus
hasn’t been detected in any U.S. swine herds, but if it were, pork
would still be safe to eat.
FULL ARTICLE
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Oct. 6-7, 2009: The Center for Food
Integrity’s 2009 Food System Summit, Hilton Kansas City Airport
Hotel, Kansas City, MO; contact: Jim Fallon at (816) 556-3129 or visit
www.foodintegrity.org.
Oct. 8-14, 2009: U.S. Animal Health Association
Annual Meeting, Town and Country Hotel, San Diego, CA; contact www.usaha.org for more
information
Oct. 12, 2009: National Pork Board’s RFD-TV Show
on the H1N1
outbreak and what it means to your operation, 7 p.m. central standard
time; contact: www.rfdtv.com.
FULL ARTICLE
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