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National Hog Farmer Weekly Preview
May 17, 2010
 
In this issue:
  Pork Exports Headed in the Right Direction
  Exports Help Boost Pork Cutout Value
  USDA Predicts Record Corn Crop
  Return to Profitability, Market Hog Outlook Highlight Expo Talk

MARKET PREVIEW
Pork Exports Headed in the Right Direction
Export data for March, released last week by the Commerce Department and USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service indicated solid, although unspectacular, performance for U.S. pork exports so far in 2010.

Total U.S. pork exports for March amounted to 370.37 million pounds carcass weight equivalent, just 0.23% higher than one year ago. March shipments bring year-to-date exports to 1.047 billion pounds carcass weight, 1.3% higher than at the end of March 2009. Both of the percentage change figures are lower than they were at the end of February. But given last year’s difficulties, positive numbers are winners and are, no doubt, one big contributor to this year’s excellent pork and hog markets.

For comparison, U.S. beef exports were 26% higher this March vs. one year ago, while year-to-date beef exports were 25% higher at the end of March. Shipments were larger for every major beef market except Vietnam and Mexico, our largest beef exports customer since the discovery of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the United States in 2003. Vietnam, it should be noted, is a back door for beef entering China

FULL ARTICLE

PORK EXPORT PREVIEW
Exports Help Boost Pork Cutout Value
While hog prices have settled back a bit from recent highs, the run-up in prices certainly came as a welcome respite for producers who were long overdue for a break from red ink.

Lower inventories are clearly part of the story behind this price surge, but the wholesale pork cutout also provides some guidance on the factors driving improved pork demand (Figure 1). At the end of April and into early May, the cutout averaged around $90/cwt. – 50 to 60% higher than a year ago. This was the highest value seen since the export-driven record values posted in August 2008.

While all cuts are performing well compared to the doldrums of 2009, the carcass value seems to be getting a particularly strong boost from items typically targeted for export. For example, the ham primal cutout is nearly $0.76/lb. (about 75%) higher than a year ago. Picnic primals have surged nearly 90% to about $0.69/lb. Demand for these items has been extremely strong in Mexico, the No. 1 volume market for U.S. pork.

FULL ARTICLE

LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW
USDA Predicts Record Corn Crop
USDA’s latest Crop Production and World Supply and Demand Estimates report predicts a record corn crop of 13.37 billion bushels for the 2010/11 marketing year. Yield is projected at 163.5 bu./acre, which is 2.7 bu./acre above the 10-year trend. Carryout stocks are estimated at 1.818 billion bushels, up 5% over 2009. Exports are predicted at 2 billion bushels, compared to 1.95 billion bushels for the 2009/2010 marketing year. Corn usage for ethanol is estimated at 4.6 billion bushels, compared to 4.4 billion bushels this marketing year. Domestic corn feed and residual use are projected at 5.35 billion bushels compared to 5.374 billion last year. Corn prices are estimated to range from $3.20 to $3.80/bu. in 2010/2011. Soybean production is estimated at 3.3 billion bushels, down 49 million from last year’s record production. Soybean yields are projected at 42.9 bu./acre, down 1.1 bu./acre from 2009. Soybean ending stocks for 2009/2010 are unchanged at 190 million bushels. Average soybean price is projected at $8.00 to $9.50/bu. Wheat production is estimated at 2.043 billion bushels, down 173 million bushels from last year. Wheat usage is projected to be up 3% with higher expected domestic use and exports. Exports are projected to increase by 35 million bushels to 900 million bushels. The season-average farm price is estimated at $4.10 to $5.10/bu.

FULL ARTICLE

NEWS FLASH
Return to Profitability, Market Hog Outlook Highlight Expo Talk
The hog industry’s return to profitability will be a key point of discussion during Steve Meyer’s market outlook talk during the 2010 World Pork Expo. Meyer will present a complete hog outlook during the June 9 and June 10 educational seminar held from noon to 2:30 p.m. in the Marketing Information Center, located in the upper level of the Varied Industries Building on the Iowa State Fairgrounds in Des Moines, IA.

Meyer, president of Paragon Economics, Inc. and weekly contributor to National Hog Farmer magazine’s Weekly Preview e-newsletter, predicts slaughter rates will decrease as the year progresses.

But as the market trends upward, Meyer cautions producers to monitor foreign imports, exports and feed costs.

FULL ARTICLE

PORK INDUSTRY CALENDAR
May 16-19, 2010: Alltech's 26th International Animal Health and Nutrition Symposium,
Lexington, KY;
For more information contact: www.alltech.com.

June 8-10, 2010: "Sustaining Animal Agriculture: Balancing Bioethical, Ecnomic and Social Issues." Jefferson Auditorium, USDA's South Agriculutre Building, Washington, DC;
For more information contact: Council for Agricultural Science and Technology at www.cast-science.org .


June 9-11, 2010: World Pork Expo, Iowa State Fairgrounds,
De Moines, IA;
For more information contact: www.worldpork.org.



FULL ARTICLE
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It’s Expo time! Thousands of producers and industry professionals from all over the world will be in attendance. Don’t miss three jam-packed days of learning, networking and training plus discover the latest trends, products and innovations. And, don’t forget the fun — click here for all the details!

 BLUEPRINT

As positive margins return to pork producers’ ledgers, owners and managers are recounting the hard lessons learned as they redouble efforts to improve risk management skills, measure and manage production variance with greater precision, and produce quality pork in a safe and sustainable manner. At the heart of the 50th edition in the Blueprint series, published April 15th, 2010, is a focus on new and improved pathways to profitability.

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FOR ROBUST RESULTS, GO TO THE SOURCE.
Our breeding technology is delivering what your operation demands, high production results across a wide range of environmental conditions. Count on the industry leader. Go to the trusted source.Click here for more information.

 MAGAZINE HIGHLIGHTS

The May 15 edition of the National Hog Farmer will feature the fifth class of the “Masters of the Pork Industry,” featuring personal and professional profiles of industry entrepreneurs destined to leave their mark on the North American pork industry. This special edition also features 21 products nominated for the National Hog Farmer’s World Pork Expo New Product tour and a full slate of WPX events and activities.

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 POSTERS

FREE SELECTION GUIDES AND MANAGEMENT POSTERS
National Hog Farmer offers 10 posters targeting key production areas, offering guidance in critical areas such as feet and leg soundness and reproduction traits soundness in replacement gilts. Others include pig anatomy, heat detection, sow condition, etc. All posters are in English. Select posters are translated to Spanish, Chinese and Japanese.

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Join thousands of your peers for three days of learning, networking, training and fun at the 2010 World Pork Expo. From the world’s largest pork-specific trade show and America’s Best Genetics Alley to lunch at the Big Grill, it’s all at the Iowa State Fairgrounds June 9–11. Click here to register. for all the details!

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