Slippage in Crop Estimates Expected
Tuesday’s Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply
and Demand Estimates from USDA are expected to show yet-smaller U.S.
corn and yet-larger U.S. soybean crops, according to pre-report
estimates from Dow Jones. Analysts expect USDA to again reduce its corn
yield estimate, this time to 154.4 bu./acre compared to 155.8 bu./acre
last month. That would put the 2010 crop at 12.545 billion bushels,
down 119 million bushels from last month’s estimate and 565 million
bushels lower than last year’s crop – an average yield over 10
bu./acre shy of the 2009 crop.
This reduction is most likely already priced into the futures markets,
so it would take a significant deviation to move markets sharply at this
time. The final estimate of the 2010 crop won’t be available until
There are many things that could happen next spring and summer that
could impact corn prices for the remainder of the 2011 crop year and,
given the low levels of projected carryout stocks next September, well
into the 2011-2012 crop year.
The livestock and poultry industries still need a relief mechanism for
the Renewable Fuels Standard that would allow corn to move from mandated
ethanol usage (or production, if the ethanol program gets changed) to
livestock feed when we get a severe drought. This crop is the
third-largest on record and, still, it could set the stage for huge
challenges in 2012, if the weather is much less than perfect next
Wean-to-First Service Interval is a Key to Greater
This month’s column will take an in-depth look at
wean-to-first service interval and its effect on several production
parameters. Wean-to-first service interval marks the days from weaning
until the female is bred the first time.
Most farms follow this definition, although there are a few farms that
alter this number based on plans to skip heats when they don’t need
sows bred that week or when they are in poor body condition. There are
also some farms that heat check sows, but delay breeding for 12-24 hours
to reduce semen usage or to do a better job of timing the first
insemination. And, with more farms going to batch farrowing, some sows
may be skipped or placed on Matrix to delay estrus so they can be bred
to farrow during a specific week. All of these procedures would
artificially increase wean-to-first service interval.
Over the last several years we have seen some shift to weaned sows
cycling sooner. Several farms have average wean-to-first service
intervals less than five days. This is probably due to later weaning
ages, the use of more nurse sows , beginning heat checking sooner after
weaning, increased daily feed intake in lactation, supplemental cooling
systems in farrowing and gestation, and more aggressive feeding from
weaning to breeding.
Gains for Republicans in the House
The Republican Party made historic gains in last week’s
election by winning over 60 congressional seats. This is the largest
change in the number of seats since 1946. The Republicans will have the
largest House majority since 1928. It is estimated that the Republicans
will have 240 seats and the Democrats 187 seats with eight still
undecided. The biggest losses for the Democrats were in the Midwest,
especially in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Rural and moderate Democrats
were hit the hardest by the voters’ dissatisfaction with the direction
of the federal government. Clearly, the economy was the most important
issue for voters as 62% ranked it their top priority. Voters are not
happy with either party as their disapproval for both parties stands at
53%. Congressman John Boehner (R-OH) will become Speaker of the House of
Representatives for the 113th Congress. He served on the House
Agriculture Committee for a number of years prior to becoming House
Minority Leader. Boehner has indicated that two areas that Republicans
will want to focus on are deficit spending and repeal of health care.
Democrats Hold the Senate — The Democrats held onto the Senate,
although their margin is thinner. The Republicans gained six Senate
seats with wins in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota,
Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In a very closely watched race, Senate
Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) held onto his seat and will remain as
Majority Leader. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is the Minority
Webinars Explain Proposed GIPSA Rules
The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) is coordinating
two webinar conferences for its Strategic Investment Program (SIP)
participants to better understand the marketing rule proposed in June by
USDA’s Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration
The rule covers marketing contracts, production contracts and other
issues, and USDA has set the deadline for submitting comments at Nov.
So that producers are aware of the provisions and potential impacts of
this rule, NPPC has organized two webinars with Steve Meyer, president
of Paragon Economics, Adel, IA. During the webinars, Meyer will discuss
the implications of the proposed rules and answer questions of the
Nov. 10, 2010: Swine Institute,
Courtyard by Marriott
for more information contact: Katrina Spencer at (573) 882-0378 or Erica
Lovercamp at (573) 882-9552 or visit http://muconf.missouri.edu/swine_institute/.
Nov. 11-17, 2010: United States Animal Health
Association and American Association of Veterinary Laboratory
Diagnosticians Annual Meeting, Minneapolis Hilton Hotel
for more information contact: www.usaha.org or www.aavld.org.
Nov. 16-19, 2010: EuroTier 2010, Exhibition
Grounds, Hanover, Germany; contact: www.eurotier.de.
The proposed USDA GIPSA ruling will impact contract terms,
restrict marketing arrangements, create legal uncertainty and limit the
ability to negotiate prices — a recipe for chaos for U.S. pork
to send comments to GIPSA.