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National Hog Farmer Weekly Preview
November 8, 2010
 
In this issue:
  More Slippage in Crop Estimates Expected
  Wean-to-First Service Interval is a Key to Greater Output
  Historic Gains for Republicans in the House
  Two Webinars Explain Proposed GIPSA Rules

MARKET PREVIEW
More Slippage in Crop Estimates Expected
Tuesday’s Crop Production and World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates from USDA are expected to show yet-smaller U.S. corn and yet-larger U.S. soybean crops, according to pre-report estimates from Dow Jones. Analysts expect USDA to again reduce its corn yield estimate, this time to 154.4 bu./acre compared to 155.8 bu./acre last month. That would put the 2010 crop at 12.545 billion bushels, down 119 million bushels from last month’s estimate and 565 million bushels lower than last year’s crop – an average yield over 10 bu./acre shy of the 2009 crop.

This reduction is most likely already priced into the futures markets, so it would take a significant deviation to move markets sharply at this time. The final estimate of the 2010 crop won’t be available until January.

There are many things that could happen next spring and summer that could impact corn prices for the remainder of the 2011 crop year and, given the low levels of projected carryout stocks next September, well into the 2011-2012 crop year.

The livestock and poultry industries still need a relief mechanism for the Renewable Fuels Standard that would allow corn to move from mandated ethanol usage (or production, if the ethanol program gets changed) to livestock feed when we get a severe drought. This crop is the third-largest on record and, still, it could set the stage for huge challenges in 2012, if the weather is much less than perfect next summer.

FULL ARTICLE

PRODUCTION PREVIEW
Wean-to-First Service Interval is a Key to Greater Output
This month’s column will take an in-depth look at wean-to-first service interval and its effect on several production parameters. Wean-to-first service interval marks the days from weaning until the female is bred the first time.

Most farms follow this definition, although there are a few farms that alter this number based on plans to skip heats when they don’t need sows bred that week or when they are in poor body condition. There are also some farms that heat check sows, but delay breeding for 12-24 hours to reduce semen usage or to do a better job of timing the first insemination. And, with more farms going to batch farrowing, some sows may be skipped or placed on Matrix to delay estrus so they can be bred to farrow during a specific week. All of these procedures would artificially increase wean-to-first service interval.

Over the last several years we have seen some shift to weaned sows cycling sooner. Several farms have average wean-to-first service intervals less than five days. This is probably due to later weaning ages, the use of more nurse sows , beginning heat checking sooner after weaning, increased daily feed intake in lactation, supplemental cooling systems in farrowing and gestation, and more aggressive feeding from weaning to breeding.

FULL ARTICLE

LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW
Historic Gains for Republicans in the House
The Republican Party made historic gains in last week’s election by winning over 60 congressional seats. This is the largest change in the number of seats since 1946. The Republicans will have the largest House majority since 1928. It is estimated that the Republicans will have 240 seats and the Democrats 187 seats with eight still undecided. The biggest losses for the Democrats were in the Midwest, especially in Illinois, Indiana and Ohio. Rural and moderate Democrats were hit the hardest by the voters’ dissatisfaction with the direction of the federal government. Clearly, the economy was the most important issue for voters as 62% ranked it their top priority. Voters are not happy with either party as their disapproval for both parties stands at 53%. Congressman John Boehner (R-OH) will become Speaker of the House of Representatives for the 113th Congress. He served on the House Agriculture Committee for a number of years prior to becoming House Minority Leader. Boehner has indicated that two areas that Republicans will want to focus on are deficit spending and repeal of health care.

Democrats Hold the Senate — The Democrats held onto the Senate, although their margin is thinner. The Republicans gained six Senate seats with wins in Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In a very closely watched race, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) held onto his seat and will remain as Majority Leader. Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is the Minority Leader.

FULL ARTICLE

NEWS FLASH
Two Webinars Explain Proposed GIPSA Rules
The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) is coordinating two webinar conferences for its Strategic Investment Program (SIP) participants to better understand the marketing rule proposed in June by USDA’s Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA).

The rule covers marketing contracts, production contracts and other issues, and USDA has set the deadline for submitting comments at Nov. 22, 2010.

So that producers are aware of the provisions and potential impacts of this rule, NPPC has organized two webinars with Steve Meyer, president of Paragon Economics, Adel, IA. During the webinars, Meyer will discuss the implications of the proposed rules and answer questions of the participants.

FULL ARTICLE

PORK INDUSTRY CALENDAR
Nov. 10, 2010: Swine Institute, Courtyard by Marriott
Columbia, MO
for more information contact: Katrina Spencer at (573) 882-0378 or Erica Lovercamp at (573) 882-9552 or visit http://muconf.missouri.edu/swine_institute/.

Nov. 11-17, 2010: United States Animal Health Association and American Association of Veterinary Laboratory Diagnosticians Annual Meeting, Minneapolis Hilton Hotel
Minneapolis, MN
for more information contact: www.usaha.org or www.aavld.org.



Nov. 16-19, 2010: EuroTier 2010, Exhibition Grounds, Hanover, Germany; contact: www.eurotier.de.



FULL ARTICLE
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 BLUEPRINT

As positive margins return to pork producers’ ledgers, owners and managers are recounting the hard lessons learned as they redouble efforts to improve risk management skills, measure and manage production variance with greater precision, and produce quality pork in a safe and sustainable manner. At the heart of the 50th edition in the Blueprint series, published April 15th, 2010, is a focus on new and improved pathways to profitability.

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The proposed USDA GIPSA ruling will impact contract terms, restrict marketing arrangements, create legal uncertainty and limit the ability to negotiate prices — a recipe for chaos for U.S. pork producers. Click here to send comments to GIPSA.


 MAGAZINE HIGHLIGHTS

The October 15 Blueprint edition of National Hog Farmer provides guidelines for building a sound replacement gilt program, including nutritional considerations to maximize genetic potential and the importance of an effective herd health management program. In addition, the issue offers a special section on screening replacement gilt candidates for skeletal and reproductive soundness. http://www.nationalhogfarmer.com.

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 POSTERS

FREE SELECTION GUIDES AND MANAGEMENT POSTERS
National Hog Farmer offers 10 posters targeting key production areas, offering guidance in critical areas such as feet and leg soundness and reproduction traits soundness in replacement gilts. Others include pig anatomy, heat detection, sow condition, etc. All posters are in English. Select posters are translated to Spanish, Chinese and Japanese.

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