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National Hog Farmer Weekly Preview
May 16, 2011
 
In this issue:
  Sufficient Corn Supplies Will Cost More
  March Exports Set All-Time Value Record
  USDA Bumps Corn Crop Prediction by a Billion
  NPPC Retains Clean Water Act Victory

MARKET PREVIEW
Sufficient Corn Supplies Will Cost More
USDA's May Crop Production and World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) reports contained both good news and bad news for pork producers.

The good news is that USDA predicts slightly larger-than-expected year-end stocks this fall and enough production this year to meet all needs and begin rebuilding grain stocks by the end of the 2011-12 crop year. The bad news is that, in spite of these projected sufficient supplies, prices will actually be higher this year.

Figure 1 shows USDA's projected corn supply and utilization for the coming year. The 2010/11 year-end stocks were raised in the May report from 675 to 730 million bushels. Analysts were expecting that number to fall to 665 million bushels, so this in itself has pushed old-crop corn prices lower. USDA made no changes to projected corn acres in this report, but recent flooding episodes and continued wet weather in North Dakota, the Eastern Cornbelt and the Delta will likely force a reduction at some point. That probably won’t occur until the June 30 Acreage Report which is based on surveys of actual plantings.

FULL ARTICLE

PORK EXPORT PREVIEW
March Exports Set All-Time Value Record
There is good news with the announcement of March pork export numbers, and even better news when one looks behind the scenes.

The good news is that U.S. pork exports in March set all-time, single-month records with per-head equivalent value of exports at $56.52. Those exports also comprised 29.4% of all U.S. pork and pork variety meat production – another record.

March pork exports hit 217,025 metric tons (478.4 million pounds) and surpassed $553.6 million in value, a 31.3% increase in volume and a 40% jump in value over year-ago levels. For the first quarter of 2011, pork exports accounted for nearly 27% of total production and $50.79 in per-head export value, reaching totals of 554,185 metric tons (1.2 billion pounds) valued at nearly $1.4 billion.

Records Set Despite Barriers
The better news is that this success has been achieved while obstacles continue to hinder U.S. pork exports. The 5% NAFTA-related tariff in Mexico remains in place. Periodic plant delistings in Russia are a fact of life. Several competing nations already have free trade agreements (FTAs) approved that reduce the tariffs on their products. However, the reality is that international trade may never take place on a perfectly level playing field. The U.S. Meat Export Federation’s (USMEF)role is to support the industry and navigate around the barriers.

FULL ARTICLE

LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW
USDA Bumps Corn Crop Prediction by a Billion
USDA predicted a record corn crop of 13.5 billion bushels for the 2011/2012 crop year. This is an increase of 1.1 billion bushels from last year as a result of an estimated increase of 4 million acres in intended plantings. USDA’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report also predicted the 2011/2012 season-average farm price for corn would be a record $5.50 to $6.50/bu. compared to last year of $5.10 to $5.40/bu. Ending stocks for the 2010/11 crop year are estimated at 730 million bushels and 900 million bushels for the 2011/12 crop year. The report estimates the 2011/12 soybean production at 3.285 billion bushels, down 44 million bushels from last year, due to fewer harvested acres. Soybean prices are estimated for 2011/12 at $12 to $14/bu. compared to last year of $11.40/bu.

Release Conservation Reserve Acres – Seventy-two national and state agricultural groups representing agribusiness and the meat, livestock and poultry industries sent a letter to members of the House and Senate Agriculture Committees asking that farmers be allowed to remove land “that can be cropped in an environmentally sensitive way” from the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP), without penalty. Citing tight supplies of grain and oilseeds, the organizations stated, “Increasingly, this challenge of adequacy of grains and oilseeds is not simply a U.S. supply issue. It is a global concern where many nations are trying to provide an affordable food supply to people that are finding it difficult to meet basic nutritional needs.” Those signing the letter included American Bakers Association, American Feed Industry Association, Dairy Farmers of America, National Chicken Council, National Grain and Feed Association, National Meat Association, National Pork Producers Council, National Turkey Federation, Pet Food Institute, and Tyson Foods. Currently there are approximately 31 million acres in CRP.

FULL ARTICLE

NEWS FLASH
NPPC Retains Clean Water Act Victory
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) decided on Friday not to seek a rehearing of the Clean Water Act case on concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) that it lost to the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) in March.

This means that the decision of a three-judge panel of the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit Court in New Orleans is binding. That ruling states that EPA can only require permits from farms that are actively discharging.

With this development, NPPC says it intends to immediately begin the process to recover legal fees it spent in challenging EPA’s 2008 CAFO rule.

FULL ARTICLE

PORK INDUSTRY CALENDAR
May 22-25, 2011: Alltech’s 27th International Animal Health and Nutrition Symposium, “The Game Changers: Creative Concepts for Agribusiness to Respond to Relentless Commoditization and to Innovate for a Greener Future,” Lexington Convention Center, Lexington, KY
For more information contact: www.alltech.com or e-mail symposium@alltech.com.

Conferees will learn about sows with 40 piglets, achieving pig health and immunity without sacrificing growth, risks and choices in a dynamic grain market, the role of fetal programming in productivity vs. quality, bioplex trace minerals, the role of Actigen in the next frontier of non-antibiotics, nutritional implications of weaning 40 pigs per sow, improving feed efficiency in an era of high feed costs and how we will feed pigs in North American swine production.

May 24-26, 2011: Pork 101, hosted by the American Meat Science Association in cooperation with the National Pork Board, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX
For more information contact: Deidrea Mabry, program director, American Meat Science Association, 800-517-2672, ext. 12, dmabry@meatscience.org or www.meatscience.org.



FULL ARTICLE

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 BLUEPRINT

The April 15, 2011 Blueprint edition of National Hog Farmer offers details on creating stable herd health by developing a herd health profile, provides a review of basic immunology and gives details on how to select the right vaccine. The final article looks at efforts by a consortium of swine disease researchers to understand genetic disease resistance. www.nationalhogfarmer.com.

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 MAGAZINE HIGHLIGHTS

The May 15 issue of National Hog Farmer features seven new “Masters of the Pork Industry” interviews, an updated listing of U.S. and Canadian pork packing plant capacities, and a preview of the pork industry largest trade show, World Pork Expo, which will be held at the Iowa State Fairgrounds on June 8-10 in Des Moines. Go to www.nationalhogfarmer.com to view the issue.

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"Ever since I first attended World Pork Expo 25 years ago, each June I look forward to rubbing shoulders with the very best pork producers and industry leaders," says R.C. Hunt, NPPC president-elect, Wilson, N.C. "They come from throughout the world to provide research updates and share experiences from their own operations… all in a fun, family-friendly environment that’s ideal for your entire team of employees." Register now


 POSTERS

FREE SELECTION GUIDES AND MANAGEMENT POSTERS
National Hog Farmer offers 10 posters targeting key production areas, offering guidance in critical areas such as feet and leg soundness and reproduction traits soundness in replacement gilts. Others include pig anatomy, heat detection, sow condition, etc. All posters are in English. Select posters are translated to Spanish, Chinese and Japanese.

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