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National Hog Farmer Weekly Preview
June 6, 2011
 
In this issue:
  Reasons Hog Price Forecasts Have Dimmed
  Adjust Breeding Targets in Hot Summer Months
  Livestock, Poultry Groups Support End of Ethanol Support Programs
  Pork Board Meets on Issues Before World Pork Expo

MARKET PREVIEW
Reasons Hog Price Forecasts Have Dimmed
It is World Pork Expo week and it will certainly be interesting to see the status of pork producers’ outlooks and attitudes. I think a major determinant will be whether or not they forward-priced hogs this spring. Those who did are likely to think this is a good business. Those who didn’t will almost certainly not have such a positive view.

The potential for profits over the next 12 months has taken a huge hit since March. In late winter, futures markets were offering profits of over $10/head for hogs sold through March 2012. But the selloff of Lean Hogs (LH) futures and continuing concerns about the 2012 corn crop have driven projected losses to $11.82/head for hogs sold through May 2012 (see Figure 1). The forecasts for 2011 have dimmed as well. My numbers indicate losses of nearly $5/head for this year, compared to $10.25/head profits in 2010.

The main driver has been lower cash and LH futures prices. As Figure 2 shows, the huge rally in LH futures that began in late November peaked out in late March. Since, June and July LH futures have slipped right back to their late-November levels. The decline since late March has amounted to $14 to $15/cwt., carcass, for these two contracts, lowering per head revenue by roughly $30.

FULL ARTICLE

PRODUCTION PREVIEW
Adjust Breeding Targets in Hot Summer Months
As the weather warms up, you need to make sure your breeding crew adjusts weekly or batch group breeding targets to allow for a drop in farrowing rate of females bred during the summer breeding season.

Since we do analysis for a large number of sow farms in the United States and Canada, we decided to review data from the fall of 2009 to the fall of 2010. We selected farms with an average over 12.5 total pigs born per litter for the past two years. Forty-nine farms met that specification. Broken down by region, there were nine farms from the U.S. south region, 24 farms in the U.S. north region and 16 farms in Canada. The division for north and south was determined by the Mason-Dixon Line.

Chart 1 shows the farrowing rate (by breeding date). The data was adjusted to reflect the farrowing rate to the week bred. The 12-month farrowing rate for the 16 Canadian farms was 87.8%, 85.2% in the north region and 87.2% in the south region. Canadian farms are minimally affected by the heat. Farms in the north are affected the most, showing drops in farrowing rates to 82% in July, 81.9% in August, 80.9% in September, and starting back up in October (84.7%). We were surprised to see the south farms did not drop as much as the north farms, which were 85.3% in July, 83% in August, began coming back up in September at 86.7%, and in October at 87.9%. Farms in the south did not drop as low and did not last as long as the farms in the north region.

FULL ARTICLE

LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW
Livestock, Poultry Groups Support End of Ethanol Support Programs
Livestock and poultry groups stated their support of Senators Tom Coburn (R-OK) and Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) legislation to end ethanol support programs. Coburn and Feinstein have introduced “The Ethanol Subsidy and Tariff Repeal Act,” which would end the ethanol blender’s tax credit and the tariff on imported ethanol. In a letter to the senators, the groups stated: “At a time when animal agriculture is facing pressures on many fronts, this legislation would ease the economic strain that is heavily affecting the industries that rely so heavily on corn to feed livestock and poultry. Corn-based ethanol has distorted the corn market and stretched corn supplies to the point production costs have been increased significantly.” Those signing the letter were the American Meat Institute, California Dairies, Inc., National Chicken Council, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association, National Meat Association, National Pork Producers Council and the National Turkey Federation.

Agricultural Groups Urge Support of Export Programs – A coalition of over 120 agricultural groups are urging Congress to maintain funding for vital USDA export programs when considering the fiscal year 2012 agriculture appropriations bill. In a letter to Congress, the Coalition to Promote U.S. Agricultural Exports, called on Congress to fully fund the Foreign Market Development (FMD) program ($34.5 million) and the Market Access Program ($200 million). A USDA study found that for every additional $1 expended by government and industry on these cost-share export market development programs between 2002 and 2009, U.S. food and agricultural exports increased by $35. The programs were reauthorized in the 2008 farm bill.

FULL ARTICLE

NEWS FLASH
Pork Board Meets on Issues Before World Pork Expo
With the success of its new "Pork. Be Inspired" advertising campaign launched in April, the National Pork Board will meet Tuesday to consider a proposal to extend Pork Checkoff funding of the media reach of the campaign into the fall. The board’s meeting in Des Moines is the day before the start of World Pork Expo, which runs Wednesday through Friday at the Iowa State Fairgrounds.

The board will also elect officers for the year beginning July 1.

“Early response to our new branding initiative, especially among our partners in the packing industry and in food retailing, has been very positive,” says Gene Nemechek, swine veterinarian and president of the National Pork Board. “Our producer-led domestic marketing committee believes we can build on this early momentum if we have the ability to purchase additional television and other advertising this fall.”

The launch of "Pork. Be Inspired" included national television advertising in April and May. Advertising in magazines, on radio and online is scheduled to continue through the rest of the year. But the 2011 budget approved by the board last November didn’t include television advertising beyond this spring.

FULL ARTICLE

PORK INDUSTRY CALENDAR
June 8-10, 2011: World Pork Expo, Iowa State Fairgrounds, Des Moines, IA. For more information contact: www.nppc.org.

June 14-17, 2011: 2011 Pork Management Conference, Hilton Nashville, TN. For more information, call the Pork Checkoff Service Center at (800) 456-7675 or log onto www.pork.org.



June 29, 2011: Swine Ventilation Workshop, Darke County Fairgrounds, Greenville, OH. For more information contact: http://porkinfo.osu.edu.



July 16-19, 2011: American Veterinary Medical Association Annual Convention, America’s Center
downtown St. Louis, MO. For more information contact: https://www.avmaconvention.org.



FULL ARTICLE
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 BLUEPRINT

The April 15, 2011 Blueprint edition of National Hog Farmer offers details on creating stable herd health by developing a herd health profile, provides a review of basic immunology and gives details on how to select the right vaccine. The final article looks at efforts by a consortium of swine disease researchers to understand genetic disease resistance. www.nationalhogfarmer.com.

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 MAGAZINE HIGHLIGHTS

The May 15 issue of National Hog Farmer features seven new “Masters of the Pork Industry” interviews, an updated listing of U.S. and Canadian pork packing plant capacities, and a preview of the pork industry largest trade show, World Pork Expo, which will be held at the Iowa State Fairgrounds on June 8-10 in Des Moines. Go to www.nationalhogfarmer.com to view the issue.

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 POSTERS

FREE SELECTION GUIDES AND MANAGEMENT POSTERS
National Hog Farmer offers 10 posters targeting key production areas, offering guidance in critical areas such as feet and leg soundness and reproduction traits soundness in replacement gilts. Others include pig anatomy, heat detection, sow condition, etc. All posters are in English. Select posters are translated to Spanish, Chinese and Japanese.

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"World Pork Expo is 'where it's at,' " says Doug Wolf, NPPC president, Lancaster, Wisc. "You'll meet people who are as dedicated to pork production as you are, and who enjoy sharing what works in their operations and what doesn't. It's a great atmosphere that's unlike any other, featuring the latest information along with good food and fun."

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Newport Laboratories offers ParaSail®, the swine industry's first avirulent live, single-dose vaccine for Haemophilus parasuis. ParaSail is backed by more than five years of research and development. The USDA has approved ParaSail as a 1mL IM product in pigs 21 days of age or over. For more information visit www.parasailprotection.com.

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