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Pork Prospects Brighten with Corn Crop Report
Since June 9, the day USDA issued its latest estimate of the 2011 corn crop and dropped its forecast of projected year-end 2011/2012 crop year carryout stocks by 205 million bushels – to 695 million bushels, only 5.2% of projected total usage – pork producers’ economic prospects for the next year have improved dramatically! Go figure.
The ink on the June 9 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates had barely dried when corn futures prices began to fall. Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group Corn Futures for July closed pit trading on June 10 at $7.77. They closed Friday afternoon at $7.00. New crop December futures dropped from $7.09 to $6.49 over the same period. All new crop contracts are now well below the $7 level; they were all above that level at the time of the report.
What has Changed?
Not a lot has changed, but a few factors have driven the selloff. First, the Goldman roll, a time period in which commodity funds led by the Goldman-Sachs fund, rolled nearby contracts into more distant contracts to avoid delivery, squeezes, lower volume and limited liquidity that can happen to spot month futures. That action usually depresses the front month contract, but can sometimes bolster prices in distant months. Not this time. The entire complex followed July lower.
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Targeting Central/South America for U.S. Pork Exports
While Mexico, Japan, China and South Korea get most of the press regarding U.S. pork exports, Central and South America are emerging markets that are receiving attention as growing destinations for pork from the United States.
Total U.S. pork exports are up a solid 18% in volume and 24% in value through the first four months of 2011, but the pace of growth in Central America and neighboring South America is even stouter – a 24% boost in volume and 34% in value vs. the same period in 2010.
Anticipating the growth potential, U.S. Meat Export Federation (USEF) recently appointed a new representative, Jessica Julca, who will cover South America from a base in Lima, Peru.
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House Delays GIPSA Rule
The House of Representatives passed its fiscal year 2012 agriculture appropriations bill, which would limit USDA’s ability to finish the proposed Grain Inspection and Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA) rule on livestock and poultry marketing. The legislation would not allow any funds made available under the bill to be used to “write, prepare, develop or publish” a final rule or an interim final rule regarding USDA’s proposed GIPSA rule on livestock and poultry marketing. This in essence stops any work on the proposed rule during fiscal year 2012, which begins Oct. 1. The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) said it is “grateful that the House of Representatives is requiring USDA to take a timeout on the GIPSA rule, which, as proposed, is bad for farmers and ranchers, bad for consumers, and bad for rural America. And contrary to the proclamations from some general farm groups, the vast majority of livestock and poultry producers strongly oppose this regulation, which would cost them millions of dollars and lead to thousands of lost jobs.” The producer groups opposed to the proposed rule cite the negative impact it would have on producers. According to a study conducted by Informa Economics, the GIPSA rule would impose on the livestock and poultry industries “ongoing and indirect” costs – eventually borne by producers and consumers – of more than $1.64 billion, including nearly $880 million to the beef industry, more than $400 million to the pork industry and almost $362 million to the poultry industry. The American Farm Bureau Federation, National Farmers Union and R-CALF opposed the provision delaying the proposed rule.
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Lawmakers Restore Funding Protecting U.S. Food Supply
The House of Representatives has unanimously passed an amendment to restore funding to the National Animal Health Laboratory Network (NAHLN) to protect the nation’s food supply from foreign animal diseases.
Rep. Corey Gardner (R-CO) offered the amendment after the House Agriculture Appropriations Subcommittee proposed eliminating $4.4 million, representing all of NAHLN’s funding, from the Food and Agriculture Defense Initiative for fiscal year 2012.
Supportive groups included the Association of American Veterinary Medical Colleges (AAVMC), the American Veterinary Medical Association, the American Association of Veterinary Laboratory Diagnosticians and other agriculture and food industry experts, who warned that cutting funding to the 59-member NAHLN laboratory network could put the nation’s health at risk.
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June 28, 2011: Advanced Swine Reproduction Seminar, Waverly Civic Center, Waverly, IA. For more information contact: Mark Storlie at the Fayette County Extension Office at (563) 425-3331 or e-mail mstorlie@iastate.edu.
June 29, 2011: Swine Ventilation Workshop, Darke County Fairgrounds, Greenville, OH. For more information contact: http://porkinfo.osu.edu.
July 16-19, 2011: American Veterinary Medical Association Annual Convention, America’s Center
downtown St. Louis, MO. For more information contact: https://www.avmaconvention.org.
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NPPC works diligently to protect and promote the interests of America’s pork producers who in turn provide safe, nutritious pork to domestic and foreign markets, generating thousands of jobs and more than $30 billion of gross national product to the U.S. economy. Click here
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