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USDA Crop Estimates Play Heck with Feed Costs
The cost and profit challenges facing pork producers got significantly greater last week when USDA released its August estimates for the 2011 U.S. corn and soybean crops. Both numbers came in below expectations, which drove corn, soybean and soybean meal prices sharply higher and significantly increasing the outlook for production costs for producers who have not already priced inputs at lower levels.
USDA’s estimated 2011 national corn yield of 153 bu./acre was over 2 bu./acre lower than the average of analysts’ pre-report estimates and roughly 10 bu./acre below the long-term trend yield for 2011. When combined with a 500,000-acre reduction in the number of harvested acres, the lower yield pushed the estimated size of this year’s corn crop down to 12.914 billion bushels, 556 million bushels lower than the July estimate.
While still nearly 470 million bushels larger than last year, a 12.914-billion-bushel crop will result in a significant drawdown of corn stocks by the end of the 2011-12 crop year. USDA currently has that figure pegged for 714 million bushels, only 5.4% of total corn usage. That is the second lowest stocks-to-use ratio in history, second only to 1995-96, when total corn usage was just 8.55 billion bushels.
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Pork Exports on Track to be Record Setter
With export results from the first half of 2011 now in place, the year is shaping up to be a record-setter for U.S. pork. The combination of strong first-half export performance and a positive second-half outlook project U.S. pork exports eclipsing the $5 billion mark for the first time in history.
For the first half of the year, pork and pork variety meat exports were up 14% and 19% in volume and value, respectively, totaling 1.08 million metric tons (2.4 billion pounds) valued at $2.805 billion. Based on those results and a positive outlook for the remainder of the year, exports to China/Hong Kong, Japan, South Korea and Canada are likely to drive pork exports to exceed 2010 levels by at least 10%.
In June, pork exports were 25.3% of total U.S. production at an export value of $50.90/head. This compares to 24.8% of production and $47.42/head in June 2010. For the first half of 2011, exports equaled more than 27% percent of production with exports providing $52.76 of value per head.
U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) is not alone in its optimism regarding the prospects for pork exports. The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimates released last week forecast higher pork exports for both 2011 and 2012. Relatively strong demand in Asia and favorable exchange rates were factored into the projections.
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USDA Proposes Rule for Animal Disease Traceability
USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) has issued a proposed rule to establish general regulations for improving the traceability of U.S. livestock moving interstate when animal disease events take place. Under the proposed rule, unless specifically exempted, livestock moved interstate would have to be officially identified and accompanied by an interstate certificate of veterinary inspection or other documentation, such as owner-shipper statements or brand certificates. The proposed rule encourages the use of low-cost technology and specifies approved forms of official identification for each species, such as metal ear tags for cattle. However, recognizing the importance and prevalence of other identifications in certain regions, shipping and receiving states or tribes are permitted to agree on alternative forms of identification, such as brands or tattoos. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack said, “We are proposing a flexible approach in which states and tribes can develop systems for tracing animals that work best for them and for producers in their jurisdiction. This approach offers great flexibility at the state and local level and addresses gaps in our disease response efforts." The National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) said it was pleased with the announcement and looked forward to commenting on the proposal.
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Ohio Readies Enactment of Livestock Care Standards
Ohio Agriculture Director James Zehringer has announced that animal care rules developed by the Livestock Care Standards Board will become effective on Sept. 29, 2011.
The enactment is required by Ohio’s constitution following the passage of State Issue 2 in 2009. The statewide ballot initiative called for the creation of the 13-member Ohio Livestock Care Standards Board, formed to secure industry and public input to develop livestock rules.
“The members of the Ohio Livestock Care Standards Board and representatives from Ohio’s agricultural community devoted the past 18 months to developing and vetting the most comprehensive livestock care standards in the nation,” Zehringer says. “States from around the country are now looking towards Ohio’s leadership in developing these new standards.”
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August 14 - 17, 2011: 7th International Conference on Boar Semen Preservation; Bonn, Germany. Check our website www.boarsemen2011.com for further information.
Aug. 18, 2011: George A. Young Swine Health and Management Conference, Marina Inn; South Sioux City, NE. For more information contact: http://vbms.unl.edu/web/.
Aug. 30, 2011: Carthage Veterinary Service Ltd. 21st Annual Swine Conference, Western Illinois University, Macomb, IL. For more information contact: http://www.hogvet.com/conf-overview.htm
Sept. 8, 2011: 11th Midwest Swine Nutrition Conference, Indiana Farm Bureau Building, Indianapolis, IN. For more information contact: www.swinenutritionconference.com.
Sept. 17-20, 2011: Allen D. Leman Swine Conference,RiverCentre, St. Paul, MN. For more information contact: http://www.cvm.umn.edu/vetmedce/events/adl.
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MINTREX® chelated trace minerals are a highly bioavailable source of trace minerals protected by ALIMET® feed supplement, a methionine source designed to optimize performance, productivity and health. Research has proven MINTREX delivers more bioavailable trace minerals to the small intestine than other leading trace mineral solutions.
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U.S. pork producers must be able to compete in foreign markets without restrictive tariffs or sanitary barriers to trade. NPPC’s mission of gaining and expanding access to markets through free trade agreements is paramount to the continued success of the U.S. pork industry — Click here to learn more.
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