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National Hog Farmer Weekly Preview
August 29, 2011
 
In this issue:
  Corn Yield Predictions Dip
  Just Flu It!
  Legislation to Establish Trade Agreement Priorities
  USDA Issues Guidelines for In-Plant Video Monitoring

MARKET PREVIEW
Corn Yield Predictions Dip
When it rains it pours. If anything can go wrong, it will. Or in the famous words of Rosanne Rosannadanna of Saturday Night Live, "It just goes to show you, Jane, if it's not one thing, it's another." Just doesn't have the impact without Gilda Radner's nasal voice, does it?

Unfortunately, all of the truisms for a fateful occurrence may be coming true with this year's corn crop. Pro Farmer's annual crop tour, which sends a group of farmers and crop scouts on a prescribed route across the Midwest to collect corn and soybean samples from which they estimate state and national yields, resulted in an estimated corn yield of 147.9 bushels per acre. That the Pro Farmer estimate was low was a foregone conclusion given the state-by-state data that had been released during the week. But it was even lower than a number of other revised forecasts that had come in under 150 bushels per acre.

Should the Pro Famer yield be correct and corn usage remain at the levels forecast by USDA in the August World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE), year-end carryout stocks next August would be 283 million bushels or just 2.2% of total usage (Figure 1). Both figures would be, by far, the lowest on record.

Will the market tolerate such a low level of year-end corn stocks? I don’t think so. Year-end stocks have dropped below 500 million bushels only once in history. That was in 1996, and that year's 426 million bushels accounted for 5% of total usage. Observers once believed that necessary "pipeline" supplies amounted to about 1 billion bushels, but in four other years since 1993, including last year, we have taken year-end stocks below that level with the averages of those four years being 893 million bushels and 9.3% stocks-to-use ratio.

FULL ARTICLE

SWINE HEALTH PREVIEW
Just Flu It!
You may have already noticed the signs in the windows of your local pharmacy or doctor's office declaring, "Flu Shots Today." Perhaps you already knew it was flu season because your children are sick after being back in school for just a few days, or your pigs have that barking cough after the first cool night.

If you didn't know flu season was fast approaching, let this serve as your reminder to Just Flu It! More specifically, just do flu vaccination for yourself, your family, and your farm staff and just do flu surveillance on your pigs. Why? It's because I care about you too much to argue.

Emerging Flu Changes
But seriously, the real reasons to Just Flu It are quite important. Flu in pigs is already changing. With the introduction of the 2009 pandemic H1N1 into the swine population, we have since seen several reassortant viruses emerge (Ducatez MF, Hause B, Stigger-Rosser E, Darnell D, Corzo C, Juleen K, et al. Multiple reassortment between pandemic 2009 H1N1 (2009pH1N1) and endemic influenza. Emerg Infect Dis [serial on the Internet]. 2011 Sept. [accessed 26 Aug 2011] www.cdc.gov/eid/content/17/9/110338.htm.

FULL ARTICLE

LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW
Legislation to Establish Trade Agreement Priorities
Congressman Devin Nunes (R-CA) has introduced H.R. 2702, the "Agricultural Trade Facilitation Act." The legislation establishes specific trade negotiating objectives for the United States in an attempt to limit exposure to sanitary and phytosanitary (SPS) barriers in future trade agreements. The trade negotiation objectives included:

• Strengthen the requirement that the application of measures is based on scientific evidence;

• Encourage parties to the agreement to participate actively in the development of the international standards relating to the application of measures and to apply those standards whenever appropriate;

• Improve regulatory coherence and increase the use of systems-based approaches;

FULL ARTICLE

NEWS FLASH
USDA Issues Guidelines for In-Plant Video Monitoring
The U.S. Department of Agriculture's Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) has announced the availability of the final guidelines to assist meat and poultry plants in improving their operations by using in-plant video monitoring.

Compliance Guidelines for Use of Video or Other Electronic Monitoring or Recording Equipment in Federally Inspected Establishments provide packing plants with the availability of video or other electronic monitoring or recording equipment for use in federally inspected establishments where meat and poultry are processed.

"The recommendations included in this compliance guide may further ensure the humane handling of livestock, as well as maintain the safety of our food supply and the integrity of federally inspected plants," says FSIS Administrator Al Almanza. "I encourage meat and poultry establishments nationwide to utilize the technology."

FULL ARTICLE

PORK INDUSTRY CALENDAR
Sept. 8, 2011: 11th Midwest Swine Nutrition Conference, Indiana Farm Bureau Building, Indianapolis, IN. For more information contact: www.swinenutritionconference.com.

Sept. 17-20, 2011: Allen D. Leman Swine Conference, RiverCentre, St. Paul, MN. For more information contact: http://www.cvm.umn.edu/.

Sept. 17-18, 2011: Preble County Pork Festival, Preble County Fairgrounds, Eaton, OH. For more information contact: (937) 456-7273 or info@porkfestival.org.

Sept. 20-21, 2011: 72nd Minnesota Nutrition Conference, Holiday Inn, Owatonna, MN. For more information contact:http://www.regonline.com/.

FULL ARTICLE

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The Strategic Investment Program (SIP) is the primary source of funds for the National Pork Producers Council. As an investor, you will help NPPC fight for reasonable legislation and regulation, develop revenue and market opportunities and protect livelihoods. SIP investors have a voice in NPPC policy development. Learn more.


 BLUEPRINT

The April 15, 2011 Blueprint edition of National Hog Farmer offers details on creating stable herd health by developing a herd health profile, provides a review of basic immunology and gives details on how to select the right vaccine. The final article looks at efforts by a consortium of swine disease researchers to understand genetic disease resistance. www.nationalhogfarmer.com.

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MINTREX® chelated trace minerals are a highly bioavailable source of trace minerals protected by ALIMET® feed supplement, a methionine source designed to optimize performance, productivity and health. Research has proven MINTREX delivers more bioavailable trace minerals to the small intestine than other leading trace mineral solutions.

 MAGAZINE HIGHLIGHTS

The Aug. 15, 2011 edition of National Hog Farmer magazine features several articles on protecting market access. The reports focus on verifying production, assuring pork safety, keeping pigs healthy and safeguarding herd health. Find these articles and more at www.nationalhogfarmer.com.

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 POSTERS

FREE SELECTION GUIDES AND MANAGEMENT POSTERS
National Hog Farmer offers 10 posters targeting key production areas, offering guidance in critical areas such as feet and leg soundness and reproduction traits soundness in replacement gilts. Others include pig anatomy, heat detection, sow condition, etc. All posters are in English. Select posters are translated to Spanish, Chinese and Japanese.

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