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National Hog Farmer Weekly Preview
September 26, 2011
 
In this issue:
  Pork Demand Seems to have Solid Footing
  Hog Business Not Unlike Running a Marathon
  Administration Proposes Deep Cuts in Farm Programs
  NPPC Nominates Candidates to EPA’s Board on the National Air Emissions Study

MARKET PREVIEW
Pork Demand Seems to have Solid Footing
What is in store for pork and hog demand? The answer to that question will likely determine the revenue side of the hog profit equation this fall. While the past two weeks have seen the largest hog slaughter runs of the year, total slaughter since June 1 has been only 0.2% larger than the level suggested by the June Hogs and Pigs Report. I don’t expect fall slaughter to be substantially larger than what we have seen. The USDA’s Hogs and Pigs report, released Wednesday afternoon, will shed plenty of light on that subject. If supplies remain manageable, demand will quite logically be the key determinant of prices and revenues.

First, let’s consider domestic, consumer-level demand. There are several reasons for concern but first and foremost is the state of the U.S. economy. The stock market is still struggling. Consumer sentiment took a tumble in August and it is hard to see how the stock market situation will help that number in September and beyond. Unemployment remains high. Job creation is slow. The housing market is still very soft and will remain that way for a long time, in my opinion, as there are plenty of houses available and not near enough qualified buyers to take them off the market.

FULL ARTICLE

FINANCIAL PREVIEW
Hog Business Not Unlike Running a Marathon
Those of you who know me know that I am a runner. I try to do a couple of races every year — always a local 10k for charity in the spring and then a couple of long races in the fall. I enjoy the Twin City 10-mile, which is the first weekend in October every year and then a half marathon in my hometown about three weeks later. The Twin City 10-mile has a limited entry of 6,000 runners, which are chosen in a lottery. I have run this race for five out of the last six years. Last year I actually ran my fastest time – 80:01 – which for an old guy isn’t bad. The interesting part of this is that runners are placed in corrals according to how fast they are. I have always been in Corral No. 1, which is the fastest group and I assumed with my time last year I would still be in Corral No.1. When I got my registration packet, I learned I was in Corral No. 2!

In perspective, now I know what it’s like trying to keep up in today’s swine industry. You are constantly working on trying to get better in all phases of your business – sow productivity, nursery/finishing performance, risk management, etc. – but you feel like you can’t keep up with the pack. You are always trying to find ways to improve, but you don’t know if it is still good enough to be counted amongst the best. The amount of volatility in the marketplace has made this even more difficult.

The swine industry (like running) is very competitive. You need to constantly assess your business and determine what areas you need to work on. The bottom line is you must work to make your business better in all phases, everyday. To compete, you must also have the desire to constantly reassess your business plan. I don’t like Corral No. 2, but that doesn’t mean I can’t compete.

FULL ARTICLE

LEGISLATIVE PREVIEW
Administration Proposes Deep Cuts in Farm Programs
President Barrack Obama proposed $33.348 billion in net cuts for agriculture to the Joint Select Committee on Deficit Reduction. The proposal includes the elimination of direct payments, an $8.3 billion reduction over 10 years for crop insurance, a $2.1 billion cut in conservation programs, and an increase of $8 billion for the Supplemental Revenue Assistance Program (SURE) program. The White House proposal includes:
  • Elimination of unnecessary direct payments. “The direct payment program provides farmers with fixed annual payments for having historically planted crops that were supported by government programs, regardless of whether the farmer is currently producing those crops, or producing any crop for that matter.

    FULL ARTICLE

NEWS FLASH
NPPC Nominates Candidates to EPA’s Board on the National Air Emissions Study
This past week the National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) nominated 14 candidates to a recently formed U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Science Advisory Board (SAB) to review the data submitted by Purdue University as part of the National Air Emissions Monitoring Study (NAEMS).

EPA is seeking nationally recognized experts for the SAB panel with demonstrated expertise and experience in the following areas related to animal feeding operations and air emissions estimation methods: air emissions from broiler, dairy, egg layer and/or swine production animal feeding operations; air monitoring and detection methods; exposure assessment; environmental statistics; emission and statistical modeling; and uncertainty analysis.

EPA intends to convene the SAB in early 2012 and hold a series of meetings to explore how the agency will interpret the data collected as part of the NAEMS study and the methodological approach it will utilize as it converts the data into usable emission factors to help producers determine their compliance with federal clean air laws.

FULL ARTICLE

PORK INDUSTRY CALENDAR
Sept. 29-Oct. 5, 2011: 115th U.S. Animal Health Association/54th American Association of Veterinary Laboratory Diagnosticians Annual Meeting; Adam’s Mark Hotel, Buffalo, NY. For more information contact: www.usaha.org.

Oct. 8, 2011: Workshop for Beginning Hog Farmers, West Central Research and Outreach Center, Morris, MN. For more information contact: Wayne Martin at (612) 625-6224 or marti067@umn.edu.

Oct. 19-20, 2011: The American Meat Institute Foundation Animal Care and Handling Conference for the Food Industry; Westin Crown Center, Kansas City, MO. For more information contact: http://meatami.com/ht/d/sp/i/11948/pid/11948.

Oct. 26-27, 2011: Antibiotic Use in Food Animals: A Dialogue for a Common Purpose, Hotel InterContinental O’Hare, Chicago, IL. For more information contact: National Institute for Animal Agriculture, www.animalagriculture.org or (719) 538-8843.

Oct. 27-28, 2011: Latinos in Agriculture: A Leaders’ Forum on Capitalizing Hispanic Talent El Tropicano Riverwalk Hotel, San Antonio, TX; (http://latinosinagriculture.org/leaders-forum/hotel-info/). For more information contact: Orlando Gil at (712) 240-0624.

FULL ARTICLE
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 BLUEPRINT

The April 15, 2011 Blueprint edition of National Hog Farmer offers details on creating stable herd health by developing a herd health profile, provides a review of basic immunology and gives details on how to select the right vaccine. The final article looks at efforts by a consortium of swine disease researchers to understand genetic disease resistance. www.nationalhogfarmer.com.

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U.S. pork producers must be able to compete in foreign markets without restrictive tariffs or sanitary barriers to trade. NPPC’s mission of gaining and expanding access to markets through free trade agreements is paramount to the continued success of the U.S. pork industry — Click here to learn more.

 MAGAZINE HIGHLIGHTS

The Sept. 15, 2011 National Hog Farmer magazine takes a hard look at mitigating swine manure odors, EPA’s push to regulate CAFOs, new technology for curbing dust in hog barns, and a special report on the 2011 Environmental Stewards award winners. Find these articles and video clips of the 2011 Environmental Stewards at www.nationalhogfarmer.com.

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 POSTERS

FREE SELECTION GUIDES AND MANAGEMENT POSTERS
National Hog Farmer offers 10 posters targeting key production areas, offering guidance in critical areas such as feet and leg soundness and reproduction traits soundness in replacement gilts. Others include pig anatomy, heat detection, sow condition, etc. All posters are in English. Select posters are translated to Spanish, Chinese and Japanese.

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